Spooky Tails…
Is it a Trick or a Treat?
Hello my esteemed clients, goblins, ghouls and friends,
As the leaves gracefully fall and the Game of Thrones quote reminds us that “winter is coming” (hopefully not the White Walkers), it’s that enchanting time of year again—Halloween! It’s my absolute favorite holiday, a time to unleash our inner ghouls, goblins, and well-dressed spirits. I love dressing up with my kids and friends, reveling in the change of outfits, much like the leaves changing their attire for the season. And let’s face it, Halloween is all about preparing us for the grand finale (aka death) of 2023 and the entrance of 2024, injecting humor and promise into the mix. Trick or treat, indeed!
In this spine-tingling tale, we’ll dive into the mysteries of how the economy, inflation, and world events are casting their eerie shadows on the Lake Tahoe vacation home market. Are we in for a trick or a treat?
Honestly, there’s quite a bit to send shivers down our spines right now. It’s a different kind of scary this time around. Offices are summoning people back from their remote lairs, the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates, and the ever-elusive inventory is vanishing faster than a ghostly apparition in the night. Sellers are even starting to lower their prices across all markets, and bidding wars (yes, they’re still haunting us) have turned into a macabre race to secure a home below the asking price. Offers are coming in with normal inspection and appraisal contingencies, and some sellers are even embracing sale contingencies. The market as a whole has been on a spooky slide of about 0.5% per month since May.
Yet, the perspective is shifting. It’s my eerie observation that Sellers are still stuck in 2022 while Buyers are casting their gaze towards 2024, perhaps in hopes of a real estate crash. But the crystal ball of witches may be onto something. Inflation has become a permanent resident, and if building costs are 30% higher, why would the real estate market descend into darkness? Especially when many homes have financing locked in at under 4%, and sellers have no intention of relinquishing their ghastly hold.
The truth lurking in the shadows of our luxury home markets is that most buyers believe prices should regress to 2019 levels. But that’s a ghost of the past if building costs remain 25-30% higher than they were then. We’re seeing no signs of construction becoming more affordable, as contractors have to raise their rates to appease a stressed labor force, while the cost of materials continues to rise. Those building homes also need to reside locally, further entangling them in the local real estate market, not to mention the hefty price of commuting at $7 a gallon!
Sotheby’s has just unleashed its third-quarter market report, offering insights into this thrilling rollercoaster. You can feast your eyes on the details by clicking this link or scrolling to the depths of this newsletter. If you’ve been pondering a move in the Lake Tahoe market, don’t hesitate to give us a call. We’ll be your guiding spirits through this ever-changing landscape, helping you decide if the time is ripe for buying or selling. As always…
“We welcome the opportunity of helping you or someone you love”
Wishing you a delightful autumn and a Halloween filled with laughter and spooky fun with your friends, family, and loved ones.
Stay hauntedly awesome,
David Gemme
3080 Broken Arrow Place | Olympic Valley, CA
6 BED | 5 BATH | 2 Half Bath | 5,980 SF
$5,250,000
Welcome to the exquisite Broken Arrow Lodge, a European-inspired haven nestled in Olympic Valley. Here, you’ll bask in stunning views of the KT-22 chair, Siberia Chair, Funitel, and the majestic Tram Face at Palisades Tahoe. Following a recent rejuvenation and a meticulously considered redesign, this lodge now offers the ideal fusion of serenity wrapped in a sophisticated and savvy design. It’s a true masterpiece of mountain luxury, inviting you to savor the opulence within a breathtaking natural canvas. Explore.
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